Massachusetts tax revenue continues to show steady but sluggish performance, according to discussions held this week during an annual revenue hearing at the State House. The hearing brought together the state’s top budget and economic officials to begin shaping the tax revenue estimate that will underpin the next fiscal year’s budget.

Year-to-date tax revenue currently totals approximately $15.5 billion. Forecasts are based on current collections, broader economic indicators, and national economic trends, though officials acknowledged that projections remain imprecise—particularly given ongoing shifts in federal fiscal and economic policy.

The revenue estimate established through this process serves as the foundation for the state’s budget-writing cycle. Lawmakers are required to reach consensus on a final revenue number by mid-January, after which the governor will release an official budget proposal in late January.

Looking ahead, the Home Care Alliance of Massachusetts anticipates that revenue growth will continue to slow. While budgets for fiscal years 2025 and 2026 are expected to show modest growth, projections suggest that fiscal year 2027 may see little to no growth—and potentially a decline—depending on economic conditions and federal funding decisions.

These early signals point to a more constrained budget environment in the coming years, with implications across health and human services programs as policymakers balance priorities amid tightening fiscal conditions.